Shipbuilding production remains high and the existing orderbook shows this continuing through 2012/13. Most shipping fleets are encountering surplus capacity and the current orderbook will only exacerbate this. Economic and trade forecasts indicate very poor prospects in the immediate term for the world ship building market.
Drewry's World Shipbuilding Annual Review and Forecast report provides key analysis, with forecasts up to 2026, with chapters on:
-
Shipbuilding Production
-
Shipbuilding Requirement
-
Shipbuilding Demand
-
Shipyard Impact
-
Shipyard Economics
The World Shipbuilding Market report has been further enhanced by providing not only base case forecasts through to 2026, but also high and low demand cases. The data is supplemented by a detailed annex covering shipbuilding activity from 1990 for China, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, USA and Vietnam.
The Shipbuilding Annual Review and Forecast 2012/13 report is one of Drewry Maritime Research's annual reports, providing a complete review of the industry whilst also presenting detailed forecasts for key metrics.
A global study of this nature is a unique tool that enables you to quickly assess current and future developments with confidence. No other source of information enables you to drill down into specific cost heads in such detail.
Drewry Maritime Research's annual series of reports provide the type of data, analysis and informed comment you need for decision making. Independent in thought they are valued by the many leading organisations that use them on a regular basis. No other source of information enables you to drill down into specific market attributes with such ease.
1. Executive summary
• Shipbuilding production
• Market shares and delivery performance
• The orderbook
• Drivers of newbuilding demand
• Forecast newbuilding requirement
• Looking ahead for shipbuilding
2. Factors affecting shipbuilding demand
• Introduction
• Factors affecting incremental demand
• Factors affecting replacement demand
• Existing ship supply
• Fleet growth
• Vessel demolition
• Freight markets
3. Shipbuilding requirement
• Introduction
• Forecast scenarios
• Forecast total newbuilding requirement
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by main fleet sector
• Bulk carriers
• Oil tankers
• Container ships
• Chemical tankers
• LNG
• General cargo
• Other fleet sectors
• The current orderbook
• Composition of the orderbook
• Phasing
• Regional perspective
• Forecast demand versus current orderbook - future prospects
• Bulk carriers
• Oil tankers
• Container vessels
• Chemical tankers
• LNG
• General cargo ships
4. Shipbuilding production
• Introduction
• World trends
• China
• South Korea
• Japan
• Europe
• South East Asia
• Indian Sub-continent & Middle East
• The Americas
• Rest of the World
5. Shipyard impact
• Introduction
• Forecast global overcapacity
• World shipbuilding capacity
• Forecast demand for new orders and future workload comparisons
• Influence of ship type and size
• Base case scenario
• Low case scenario
• High case scenario
• Ship complexity and size perspective
• Higher complexity cargo vessels
• Medium complexity cargo vessels
• Lower complexity cargo vessels
• Vulnerable capacity
• China
• South Korea
• Japan
6. Economic issues
• Introduction
• Ship price trends
• Newbuilding prices
• Secondhand prices
• Demolition prices
• Steel and metal costs
• Exchange rates
• Freight rates
• Shipbuilding finance
Annexes
• Country shipbuilding activity summary - Majors
• Country shipbuilding activity summary - Other countries
• Forecast newbuilding requirement - Base Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement - Low Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement - High Case
• Shipbuilding orderbook by ship type - March 2012
• Shipbuilding orderbook by region - March 2012
• Shipbuilding deliveries by ship type
• Shipbuilding deliveries by region
Tables
• World shipbuilding completions
• The shipbuilding orderbook
• Seaborne trade - growth rates
• Average fleet age and age at demolition
• Forecast shipbuilding requirement
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by main ship type: 2012-2026
• Apparent difference scheduled deliveries and forecast newbuilding requirement
2012 to 2016
• Total seaborne trade
• World seaborne trade growth by commodity sector
• Dry Bulk vessel demand: 2000 to 2011
• Oil tanker demand: 2000-2011
• The world fleet
• Cargo versus non-cargo fleet composition
• Fleet trends: 2000 and 2012
• Average age at demolition
• Forecast shipbuilding requirement
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by main ship type
• Bulk carriers - forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• Oil tankers- forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• Container vessels - forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• Chemical tankers - forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• LNG vessels - forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• General cargo vessels - forecast newbuilding requirement: Base Case
• Composition of the orderbook: March 2012
• Orderbook phasing
• Orderbook summary by region
• Orderbook characteristics
• Orderbook age
• Forecast newbuilding requirement (Base Case) vs current orderbook
• World shipbuilding production since 1999
• Shipbuilding production by ship sector
• Shipbuilding production by region
• Major world merchant shipbuilders
• China - shipbuilding completions by sector
• China - shipbuilding characteristics
• China - major shipbuilders
• South Korea - shipbuilding completions by sector
• South Korea - shipbuilding characteristics
• South Korea - major shipbuilders
• Japan - shipbuilding completions by sector
• Japan - shipbuilding characteristics
• Japan - major shipbuilders
• Europe - shipbuilding completions by sector
• Europe - shipbuilding characteristics
• Europe - regional production
• South East Asia - regional production
• South East Asia - shipbuilding completions by sector
• South Asia - shipbuilding characteristics
• India Sub-continent and Middle East - regional production
• India Sub-continent and Middle East - shipbuilding completions by sector
• India Sub-continent and Middle East - shipbuilding characteristics
• The Americas - regional production
• The Americas - shipbuilding completions by sector
• The Americas - shipbuilding characteristics
• Net residual demand for new orders after completion of contracted orders: Base case
• Net residual demand for new orders after completion of contracted orders: Low case
• Net residual demand for new orders after completion of contracted orders: High case
• Forecast new orders for high complexity vessels: Base Case
• Forecast new orders for medium complexity vessels: Base Case
• Forecast new orders for low complexity vessels: Base Case
• Newbuilding price trends 2005-2012
• Secondhand price trends 2005-2012
Figures
• Shipbuilding production and scheduled deliveries 2000-2016
• Shipbuilder market shares in 2000-2011
• Orderbook development world shipbuilding
• Orderbook to existing fleet ratios, 2011
• Ship demolition & losses
• Forecast newbuilding scenarios: all ships
• Net cumulative demand after delivery of firm orderbook: base case
• Forecast shipbuilding workloads vs recent production
• Average demolition age - all sectors
• Drivers of newbuilding demand
• Principal cargo and ship types
• Global seaborne trade by main commodity type, 1980-2011
• Global real GDP growth and total seaborne trade, 1980-2011
• Dry Bulk seaborne trade - growth rates by commodity
• Crude oil - Average voyage lengths
• World fleet by vessel type, 2012
• World cargo-carrying fleet age profile at January 2012
• Average age of main world cargo-carrying fleets at January 2012
• Ship demolition & losses
• Bulk carrier - one-year time charter rates
• Oil tankers - one-year time charter rates
• Container vessels - one-year time charter rates
• Forecast newbuilding requirement: all ships
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by type of demand: Base Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by type of demand: Low Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by type of demand: High Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by vessel type, 2012-26: Base Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by vessel type, 2012-26: Low Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by vessel type, 2012-26: High Case
• Forecast newbuilding requirement by type and period: Base Case
• Orderbook development
• Composition of the orderbook by ship type, March 2012
• Delivery phasing of the orderbook by ship type
• Orderbook by region of build
• Orderbook to existing fleet ratios, January 2012
• Net cumulative demand after delivery of firm orderbook: Base Case
• Future prospects - all ship types
• Future prospects - bulk carriers
• Future prospects - oil tankers
• Future prospects - containerships
• Future prospects - chemical tankers
• Future prospects - LNG
• Future prospects - general cargo ships
• Long-term world shipbuilding trends by region
• World shipbuilding
• World shipbuilding production since 1990
• World sector trends
• World shipbuilding trends by region
• Shipbuilding production - regional trends
• China - sector trends
• South Korea - sector trends
• Japan - sector trends
• Europe - regional trends
• South East Asia - regional trends
• India Sub-continent and Middle East - regional trends
• The Americas - regional trends
• Forecast shipbuilding workloads vs recent production
• Comparison of future and historic workloads: Base case
• Comparison of future and historic workloads: Low case
• Comparison of future and historic workloads: High case
• Future and historic vessel workload by complexity level: Base Case
• High complexity vessels future workload composition: Base Case
• Higher complexity vessel workload comparisons: Base Case
• Medium complexity vessels future workload composition: Base Case
• Medium complexity vessel workload comparisons : Base Case
• Low complexity vessels future workload composition: Base Case
• Lower complexity vessel workload comparisons: Base Case
• Ship newbuilding price long term trends
• Secondhand values indexes
• Ship scrapping prices
• Indicative demolition values - Indian sub-continent
• Steel and metal prices: long-term trends $ per tonne
• Steel and metal prices: short-term trends $ per tonne
• Main shipbuilding country exchange rate trends vs US dollar: short term trends
• Main shipbuilding country exchange rate trends vs US dollar: index 1990=100
• Drewry all-earnings index
• Capesize bulk carrier- prices and freight rate
• VLCC oil tanker- prices and freight rate
• $$ Libor rates and indicative rate spreads
Figures for Annex A1
• China - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Italy - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Netherlands - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Norway - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Philippines - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Poland - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Romania - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Russia - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Singapore - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Spain - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Taiwan - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Turkey - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Ukraine - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• USA - shipbuilding activity from 1990
• Vietnam - shipbuilding activity from 1990
The future for shipbuilding looks fraught with problems, which partly reflect the industry's historical cyclical nature. The situation is exacerbated, however, by the size of the upsurge in shipping demand together with the fact that ordering and increased production have continued for more than three years past the market turnaround of late 2008. Drewry's World Shipbuilding Market takes a look at the key factors inherent to this troubled market.
Shipbuilding Demand
Demand stems from both trade levels and scrapping levels. Trade growth is likely to remain well below long term averages and the main tanker, container and bulk carrier fleets are comparatively young. This makes for an uneasy outlook. To better understand the drivers behind the market, this chapter presents detailed analysis on:
-
Global seaborne trade by main commodity type: 1980-2011
-
Global real GDP growth and total seaborne trade: 1980-2011
-
Dry bulk seaborne trade: growth rates by commodity
-
Crude oil: Average voyage lengths
-
World fleet by vessel type: 2012
-
World cargo-carrying fleet age profile at January 2012
-
Average age of main world cargo-carrying fleets at January 2012
-
Ship demolition & losses
-
One-year time charter rates Bulk carriers, Oil tankers, Container vessels
Shipbuilding Requirement
Forecasted production is much less than recent levels as past over-ordering and low trade growth have resulted in fleet overcapacity. Unless trade growth improves or early scrapping of ships occurs, the demand for new ships will remain low or zero in the near term.
Forecasting has been further improved by providing not only base case demand but also High and Low demand cases.
Vessels types covered include: Bulk carrier, Oil tanker, Container, Chemical tanker, LNG, LPG, General Cargo, car carrier, Reefer, RoRo and others.
This chapter gives Drewry's impartial view on:
-
Forecasted newbuilding requirement by type of demand and vessel type: 2012-2016, 2017-2021, 2022-2026
-
Composition of the orderbook by ship type: March 2012
-
Delivery phasing of the orderbook by ship type
-
Orderbook by region of build
-
Orderbook to existing fleet ratios: January 2012
-
Net cumulative demand after delivery of firm orderbook
-
Future prospects for: bulk carriers, oil tankers, containerships, chemical tankers, LNG and general cargo ships
Shipbuilding Production
World shipbuilding production seems, after the inexorable year-on-year increases of the past, to be flattening out, with a marginal decline in 2011 to 51.4 million cgt from 52.5 million cgt in 2010. The level however is still more than 2.5 times that of 10 years ago.
Despite the very bleak prospects for shipbuilding, the shipbuilding workload can be expected to remain high during 2012. With slippage leading to some of this workload being delivered during 2013 and in the absence of large-scale cancellations, this may mean that shipbuilding production in 2013 will remain close to 2011 levels.
Recognising the global importance of production, Drewry's World Shipbuilding Market report looks at:
-
Long-term world shipbuilding by region
-
World shipbuilding production since 1990 covering: Bulk Carriers, Oil Tankers, Containerships, Chemical Tankers, General Cargo, Gas, RoRo and Passenger amongst others
-
World sector trends: Bulk Carriers, Oil Tankers, Containerships, Chemical Tankers, General Cargo, LPG, LNG, and others
-
Major shipbuilders ranked by orderbook and output for 2011 and 2012 respectively.
-
World shipbuilding trends by region: Europe, South East Asia, Indian Sub-continent, Middle East and The Americas
-
Selected sector trends: China, South Korea, Japan
Shipyard Impact
Having assessed demand and production it is important to look at the impact that this will have on the market. Shipbuilding workload is forecasted to drop massively from 2014 any ordering likely to be subject to fierce competition driving prices lower. Overcapacity in certain sectors, intensified by the current orderbook, will play a large part in the future. To understand the impact this will have on shipyards and shipbuilding, this chapter presents detailed information on:
-
Forecasted shipbuilding workloads vs recent production
-
Comparison of future and historic workloads: Base case, Low Case and High Case
-
Future and historic vessel workload comparison and composition by complexity level: High, Medium and Low
Shipyard Economics
With the market analysed this reports turns its focus onto the economic trends that have a great deal of influence over shipbuilding. These external trends cannot be controlled by the shipyards themselves but have a direct effect on profits. This chapter provides a wealth of information covering:
-
Newbuilding price long term
-
Secondhand values indexes
-
Ship scrapping prices
-
Indicative demolition values in the Indian sub-continent
-
Steel and metal prices: short and long-term trends in $ per tonne
-
Main shipbuilding country exchange rate trends vs US dollar: Korean Won, Japanese Yen, Euro and Chinese Yuan
-
Prices and freight rates: Capesize bulk carriers, VLCC oil tanker
-
Libor rates and indicative rate spreads
![Drewry - Independent Maritime Advisors [logo]](/i/drewry-publishing.gif)
