Maritime Financial Research


Latest Coverage

Maritime Financial Insight

November 2018


Download the November report


Dry bulk shipping

Although September was a weak month for Capesize trade, the steel production in China helped by Chinese government’s decision to not impose blanket curb on steel output, the commencement of coal restocking programme ahead of the winter months and the robust minor bulk trade are expected to provide employment opportunities for dry bulk vessels. However, we expect flatter growth in iron ore trade, and thus, a slower recovery for Capesizes because of increasing inventories at Chinese ports and efficiency of high grade iron ore. Further, we believe the impending IMO regulations will lead to the scrapping of many aged vessels in second-half 2019.


Tanker shipping

Vessel earnings in tanker shipping should improve gradually over the next two years after bottoming out in 2018. The surge in demolitions over 9M18 has offset the impact of newbuilding deliveries which is a positive sign.


Product Tanker shipping

The product tanker market has been hit by high oil prices and the corresponding weakness in refinery margins. However, the damage could be counterbalanced by the declining orderbook. As freight rates are likely to trend higher in the closing months of 2018, with the approaching winter, earnings of product tanker companies should firm up.


Gas shipping

Bright prospects of LNG shipping in the next two years, given the current pipeline of liquefaction projects, and strong demand from Asian countries will help vessel demand to marginally outpace supply. The spot charter rates should continue to improve and will likely reach USD 200,000pd in the impending winter.

In the LPG shipping space, the Baltic LPG Index closed at USD 48.29 per tonne on 10 October 2018, the highest since March 2016. The index has however declined in the second half of October as a result of ample availability of ships. The trade war has had negligible impact on freight rates as the US has managed to direct propane to other Asian buyers and China has turned to the Middle East for supplies. On the supply side, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio for the VLGC segment, at 16.8%, remains the highest.


Container shipping

The intensifying trade war between the US and China led the IMF to recently downgrade its global economic growth estimates. This will mean more uncertainty around freight rates, which together with elevated bunker prices, might spell more trouble for the already depressed stocks. Meanwhile, some shippers looking to front load their cargoes from China to the US – in anticipation of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods from January 2019 – could boost volume and freight rates in the short run.


Port operators

The ports sector remains under continued duress from the decline in throughput amid plateaued growth. The trade outlook remains weak with Drewry revising down its 2018 estimates. Escalating US-China trade war over tariffs cautioned financial markets about looming throughput decline and earnings growth.

FREE TRIAL to our Equity and Credit Research Service

Disclaimer: Important Information

Whilst the Company believes the information it uses for research is from sources believed to be reliable, the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. The opinions and estimates included herein reflect the analysts’ views based on available information on the dates specified and these views may have changed without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific client. The information herein is published for clients only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by the client, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the Company, accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages, or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in, securities mentioned herein. DFRS does not seek to do business with any of the companies mentioned other than sell them these reports. However, other related parts of Drewry Shipping Consultants Holdings Limited may seek to provide "advisory services or the sale of other group research products" to companies mentioned in this report.



The distribution of this email is governed by the UK Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 (the “FSMA”) and is restricted to qualified parties as defined by the FSMA. The distribution of this email may be restricted by rules and regulations in certain jurisdictions. Persons into whose possession the email may come are required to inform themselves about and to comply with all applicable laws and regulations in force in any jurisdiction in or from which it invests or receives or possesses this email and must obtain any consent, approval or permission required under the laws and regulations in force in such jurisdiction.


For US Investors

Drewry Financial Research Services (DFRS or the “Company”) is an independent research company and is not a registered investment adviser and is not acting as a broker dealer under any US federal or state securities laws. The Company does not provide individual investment advice or hold client money. As such, the Company is not required to be registered as an investment adviser.

Related News

Secondary offerings steal limelight in 2018, but will IPOs make a comeback in 2019?

Despite low levels of interest in shipping IPOs in the US over the last few years, listed shipping companies continue to raise money through secondary/additional offerings and bond offerings in the US market.

Drewry launches special report: Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) - what lies ahead?

Drewry Financial Research has conducted an in-depth assessment of the issues facing HMM and their future prospects with consideration given to current and anticipated future market conditions.


$6bn: The combined value of container shipping industry investments we have advised on since 2010.


$20bn: The value of financing projects we have provided commercial due diligence advice for in port M&A since 2010.


The number of countries in which our advisors have completed assignments since 2005.


Our advisors have been involved in over 400 port assignments over the past 10 years.
Latest Coverage
Our equity research service provides our clients with a range of report formats and supporting resources for the companies we cover.

Market understanding

Investment analysis based on a clear understanding of the market at both an industry and sector level.

Quality insights

Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight.


Type of Report



ICTSI 1Q19 - Result update

Financial Research Report 17 Jun 2019 PDF

Diana, Star Bulk and Golden Ocean - Is the worst behind them?

Financial Research Report 11 Jun 2019 PDF

Cosco Shipping Ports 1Q19 - Result update

Financial Research Report 07 Jun 2019 PDF

Pacific Basin - Company update - May 2019

Financial Research Report 22 May 2019 PDF

Scorpio Bulkers 1Q19 - Result update

Financial Research Report 17 May 2019 PDF

HHLA FY18 - Result update

Financial Research Report 24 Apr 2019 PDF

LNG Shipping 2019 - Sound prospects to drive earnings

Financial Research Report 02 Apr 2019 PDF

Ports Outlook 2019

Financial Research Report 26 Mar 2019 PDF

Maritime Model Portfolio - March 2019

Model Portfolio 18 Mar 2019 PDF

Dry Bulk Shipping 2019 - Global slowdown casts shadow on long held recovery narrative

Financial Research Report 22 Feb 2019 PDF

View more