Impact assessment of anti-dumping duties on the global biodiesel market

Elsewhere, the EU reopened its biodiesel market to Argentine exports in September this year by agreeing to significantly reduce import tariffs.. It has lowered the anti-dumping duties on Argentinian biodiesel from 22.0-25.7% to 4.5-8.1%. However, the EU has maintained its antidumping duties on Indonesian imports.

As a result of these changes in tariffs Argentina’s biodiesel exports surged to 200,000 tonnes in October, all of which was shipped to the EU (mainly the Netherlands and Spain). In contrast, no biodiesel was shipped to the US in October for the second consecutive month.

Higher duties on bio-diesel will raise fuel prices in the U.S, which in turn will negatively impact on bio-diesel imports from Argentina. In these circumstances Argentinian product is likely to flow to Europe. Overall, we anticipate that bio-diesel trade volumes from Argentina to the US will decline, while the volume to Europe will pick up. Considering Soybean oil is the largest biodiesel feedstock in the US, this could also mean incremental trade volume flowing into the veg-oil market. As for freight rates we expect rates from East Coast South America to the US to remain weak in 2018 reflecting lower bio-diesel exports from Argentina. Bur freight rates to Europe are likely to remain stable as a result of higher export volumes which will be underpinned by lower duties and seasonal demand.