The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.

Increasing penetration of renewables in the energy mix has already created a bearish outlook for non-coking coal trade, but completion of the rail network between Mongolia and China in 2021 threatens to bring the coking coal trade between Australia and China to a screeching halt in the long term.

Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight rates to decline in 3Q20 on routes from the Middle East/India to China.

Crude tanker rates, which have broadly declined across most routes over the last couple of months, are unlikely to recover anytime soon until there is a sizeable correction in vessel supply. Freight rates have come down drastically from the astronomical levels of March-April 2020 because of weak crude oil trade on account of output curbs by producers, lower refinery runs globally, and the return of vessels locked in floating storage.

Last week, Ardmore issued a press release suggesting that Hafnia Limited had approached it with an unsolicited acquisition offer. The company rejected the acquisition offer highlighting that the proposal undervalued Ardmore and was opportunistic. Using NAV valuation methodology, we investigate if Hafnia’s offer undervalued Ardmore.