With less than 11 months left until the IMO 2020 regulation on low-sulphur bunker fuel comes into effect, the availability and price of the low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) as well as high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) are still very uncertain. The uncertainty is making investment decisions pertaining to the upcoming regulations difficult for all industry participants, ranging from shipowners, charterers, refiners and bunker suppliers.

US sanctions on Iran have forced South Korea to look for alternative sources of condensates, thereby impacting tonne-mile demand. Moreover, as Asian petchem consumption is likely to slow down, intra-regional trade will weaken and will therefore lead to lower charter rates for small gas carriers.

US sanctions on Venezuela are likely to change the pattern of crude tanker trade, with long-haul trade replacing the short-haul trade. While the prospective change in trade pattern will favour VLCCs, it will work against Aframaxes.

The collapse of the upstream dam in Brumadinho will hurt Vale’s iron ore production from Minas Gerais in Brazil if the Brazilian government does not allow Vale to compensate the loss by increasing production at its other mines. Potentially 35-40 Capesize vessels might lose employment in 2019.

The impending IMO fuel deadline is creating a dilemma for chemical tanker owners―should they install scrubbers or replace high sulphur fuel (HSFO) by burning cleaner fuels, such as low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), LPG or LNG?