The return of Cancelled Sailings… less scary this time?

Given the already tight market conditions on the transpacific and Asia-Europe routes, Drewry provides here a brief assessment of the likely capacity situation during and after Chinese Golden Week by trade route. Further information is available in the data reports on cancelled sailings.

During the 2-week period from 28 September, 58% of the 24 cancelled sailings are on the transpacific route, 38% on the Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean route and only 4% on the transatlantic route.

The sailing cancellations in the transpacific trade appear to be at a level in line with the seasonality seen in previous years.

The reassuring fact for shippers is that this reduction in capacity through blank sailings will only moderately reduce the capacity provided by transpacific carriers this October. Based on the Cancelled Sailings Tracker Report, carriers have increased total ship capacity from Asia to the East and West Coast of North America by 11% between September 2019 and September 2020.

It is probably not a coincidence that transpacific carriers are adding capacity back, as Chinese regulators said in September that they were asking carriers why transpacific rates had risen so much and are “hoping” to see more capacity offered to the transpacific market. The same cannot be said of the Asia-Europe trade.

Between September 2019 and September 2020, the total capacity of Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean route declined by 1%. This partly reflects less buoyant demand for Asian imports in Europe than in North America. The cancellations of sailings on the Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean this year appear to be higher than last year.