Weekly analysis: 25 September 2020

Surprisingly, we’ve seen an increase in cancellations in week 43 (vs week 42), during which we tracked 4 blank sailings: 2 cancellations in the transpacific trade, 1 in Asia-North Europe-Mediterranean trade, and 1 in the Transpacific trade. Total cancelled sailings during the first four weeks of Oct ’20 are 34 out of 509 scheduled sailings, representing a 6% cancellation rate.

We can already predict that October’s cancellations will be more than double the September level. It is worth noting that Ocean Alliance did not blank any sailings during weeks 42 and 43, following the intervention of the Chinese Government questioning the carriers about the tight space in the Transpacific trade and the sky high spot rates.

The return of blank sailings in the Transpacific trade during week 43 may suggest that the spike in imports to North America from Asia may have now eased.

Capacity announcements for October remain highly dynamic, suggesting that while carriers are more wary about cancellations in the Transpacific trade, following Beijing’s intervention, they continue to fine-tune capacity to meet demand, rather than by providing a regular weekly service.

Drewry urges shippers to consider the capacity and lead time effects and to select sailings based on the latest data and on the incidence of cancellations by alliance, by week.