Forecast impact on US East Coast container port calls following collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge in approach to Baltimore Port

In 2023, total terminal utilisation for the area is estimated to have been 60%, following a 13.2% YoY decrease in overall container volumes and a 5.5% increase in terminal capacity. Notably, most of the capacity increase was at Baltimore’s Seagirt Marine Terminal, which added 800,000teu in the year.

The most recent Drewry Port Throughput Forecast, available with commentary in the Drewry Ports and Terminals Insight, has North America growing at +10.6% YoY for 2024. Removing Baltimore’s capacity, allocating its container volume across NY/NJ, Philadelphia and Hampton Roads terminals and including the forecast growth for the market, 2024 average utilisation rates could reach as high as 79%. Terminals operating at this level for a sustained period are likely to experience congestion, even more so if the increase in utilisation occurs over a short time period.

Average pre-berthing waiting times are an indicator of overall terminal congestion and again the data suggests that supply chains in this market are likely to come under strain in the coming months.

Even with the additional capacity and reduced volumes during 2023, waiting times in Baltimore and New York ports have only very recently come under control, dropping to 0.2 day on average in February 2024. In the Hampton Roads terminals, which were dealing with the highest utilisation in the area in 2023, they remain elevated at 0.5 day.

Source: Drewry Ports and Terminals Insight

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

Drewry will continue to monitor and report on the situation as it develops over the coming weeks and months. You can find monthly updates of port activity and performance and how these are impacted by the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea and other critical issues in Drewry’s Ports and Terminals Insight.

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