Weekly analysis: 26 Apr 2024

Across the major East-West headhaul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, 47 cancelled sailings have been announced between week 18 (29 Apr-5 May) and week 22 (27 May-2 Jun), out of a total of 643 scheduled sailings, representing 7% cancellation rate. 

During this period, 49% of the blank sailings will occur on the Transpacific Eastbound, 34% on the Asia-North Europe and Med and 17% on the Transatlantic Westbound trade.

Over the next five weeks, OCEAN Alliance have announced 16 cancellations, followed by THE Alliance and 2M with 12 and 5 cancellations, respectively. During the same period, 14 blank sailings have been implemented by non-Alliance services.

As can be seen in the chart above, on average 93% of the ships are expected to sail as scheduled, over the next five weeks.

On the ocean freight side, Drewry’s Composite Freight Index contracted marginally, 0.5% WoW to $2,706. This week, transpacific rates dropped 3%, while Transatlantic rates were down by 3%, conversely rates on Asia-Europe and Med routes were up by 2%.

The Middle East faces heightened risk of conflict after Iran’s April 13 strike on Israel. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt shipping, leading to increased costs for carriers and global economic repercussions, including higher energy prices and inflation, potentially reducing demand for containerized goods. 

For ports inside the Gulf, this may lead to the transfer of some transhipment volumes to hubs which are deemed safer or to the loss of gateway cargo to alternative ports, such as Khor Fakkan and Sohar or Salalah” plus longer lead time for shippers.

Drewry believes escalating tensions may cause cost hikes, supply chain issues, shipping congestion, and reduced Gulf exports.

Worth knowing...

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