Drewry’s latest assessment - November 2018

• After remaining constant for two consecutive months in July and August 2018, the global port throughput index contracted by close to two points in September 2018. A fall in September each year is a normal feature. However, the index was more than three points (2.7%) higher than the September 2017 level of 125.4 points. Clearly there is growth still at work, but it is moderating.
• All regions witnessed a monthly decline in September vs August 2018. The largest decline was witnessed by Europe where the index was 4 points (3.3%) down in September 2018. However, it was around one point higher compared with Sep 2017.
• The indices for all regions were higher when compared to one year ago in September 2017 except Latin America and Africa. The decrease was much higher for Africa (6 points, 5.0%), whereas Latin America was only one point down compared with Sept 2018. The small sample size for Africa may well explain some of the apparent volatility.
• The throughput index for the largest region China was around half a point down on a monthly basis but it was more than four points (3.1%) up compared to the September 2017 level. Clearly the tariff war issue is not biting hard just yet. Asia (excl China) witnessed the highest annual increase of around 8 points (6.6% ) but was around 2 points down in September 2018 vs the previous month.
• The two Americas regions witnessed around one and half percent monthly decline in September 2018 but annually both witnessed opposite trends. The index for Latin America was one point lower whereas North America saw an increase of 8 points (6.0%).

* Note that the index figures for Africa are based on a relatively small sample, and should be viewed with caution
# All index figures for September are preliminary, subject to change next month