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LNG orders halve in 2025—a likely rebound in the near term
Only 38 vessels were ordered in 9M25 compared to 86 in 9M24, with the orderbook-to-fleet ratio continuing to weaken in 2025, deflated by higher deliveries and low new orders. New orders were impacted by the slower pace of FIDs (in 2024 and 1H25), along with high newbuild prices and increasing uncertainty related to USTR 301, as well as stringent emission regulations such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime (FEM).
New orders suffer, while deliveries thrive
By end-3Q25, 38 vessels were ordered, down 56% from 9M24. The LNGC tally was even lower, with only 17 carriers ordered in 9M25 compared to 73 in 9M24, while LNGBVs have been stealing the show with 19 vessels ordered so far. Two FLNGs were also ordered in 3Q25 by Mexico’s Amigo LNG at the UAE’s Dubai Drydocks.
Drewry expects about 50 vessels to be ordered in 2025, compared to 96 in 2024. The current orderbook comprises 335 vessels (289 LNGCs, 37 LNGBVs, 4 FSRUs and 5 FLNGs), with an orderbook-to-fleet ratio of 41%. We expect the orderbook to deflate further till new ordering resumes, which appears to revive from the next year only.
Figure 2: Deliveries at historic highs, surpassing last 5-year average
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
New ordering revives in 3Q25
LNGC ordering gained momentum in 3Q25, with nine vessel orders, exceeding the eight ordered in 1H25. The quarter also saw five LNG bunker vessels (LNGBVs) and two floating LNG units (FLNGs) added to the orderbook. A notable development was Hanwha’s unexpected decision to commission two LNGCs under its own account, one in July and another in August. These ships are registered to be built at Hanwha’s Philly shipyard, marking the first LNGC orders in the US since the 1970s. While the core construction will take place in South Korea, final assembly and flagging will occur in the US. This move is widely interpreted as a strategic response to the USTR 301 regulation, which mandates that 1% of US LNG exports be carried on US-built and flagged LNGCs, a requirement considered economically challenging given the reported $250 million price tag per carrier.
Chinese shipyards bear the brunt of increasing scrutiny from the West
As of end-September 2025, South Korean yards constitute 65% of the current orderbook, followed by Chinese yards, accounting for 33%. There have been no LNGC orders at Chinese yards so far in 2025 mainly due to the uncertainty created by the USTR regulations on Chinese-built vessels. However, Chinese yards have secured 58% of the LNGBV orders placed so far this year. The regulations with potential port fees on Chinese-built LNGCs and other geopolitical developments have increased commercial uncertainty for shipowners over where to place orders.
Figure 3: LNG new orders halve from 2024; LNGC orders down 77% (9M25 vs. 9M24)
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
While 2025 may be a blip in terms of ordering, investments will accelerate from 2026
Shipowners are reengaging with shipyards, signalling renewed interest in placing new vessel orders. This momentum is driven by several factors, including a surge in LNG project FIDs, increased availability of shipbuilding slots and anticipated tightening between supply and demand towards the end of the decade. Additionally, advancements in vessel design, emphasising higher efficiency and reduced emissions, are helping mitigate concerns over technological obsolescence. A further catalyst for fleet renewal is the accelerated retirement of steam turbine carriers, prompting owners to seek replacements.
Figure 4: Demand for new projects, fleet renewal and fleet expansion to drive new orders
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
Conclusion
While we remain optimistic about new orders rebounding from 2026, high deliveries, a weak charter market, high newbuild prices and uncertainty over future demand in an increasingly regulated era will determine when these orders could materialise. Moreover, we maintain a positive outlook for LNGBVs and small-scale LNGCs, expecting their orders to increase through 2030 and beyond. The surge will align with the growing demand for LNG-fuelled ships (with over 1,000 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation by 2027) and expanding bunkering infrastructure. While increasing LNG supply and low prices will further boost the demand for bunkering vessels, LNG remains a concern in the IMO's Net-zero Framework (at the time of writing, the IMO has delayed the formal decision on its Net-Zero Framework to October 2026, which was expected October this year) and the FEM regulations, which can penalise the use of LNG as it is a fossil fuel. Yet, most shipowners continue to back LNG as the fuel of the future, with some even reversing their orders from methanol and ammonia dual-fuel engines to LNG.
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