LNG shipping in 2026: LNG shipping on a ‘road to recovery’, but 2026 marks just the beginning

LNG trade: Demand will rise, but supply expansion will outpace the demand growth

• Supply growth: About 43 mtpa of new liquefaction capacity is expected to be added in 2026, with some mega projects, including Qatar’s North Field Expansion (16.5 mtpa), Golden Pass T1 (6 mtpa), Corpus Christi Phase-3 and Block2-7 (8.6 mtpa), hitting the market. However, 60% of the upcoming supply is expected to become available in 2H26. Global LNG supply will improve on the back of new production additions (40 mtpa) from 2025, which will ramp up their export intensity.  
• Trade recalibration: The demand outlook is bright for Europe, with robust imports expected this year as the continent is likely to end the 2025-26 winter with less than 30% of storage, supporting demand. However, Europe’s quest to implement further structural changes in its energy sourcing (backed by new supply deals and regasification expansion) will be the main driver of imports in 2026.
• Asian demand is set to rise, along with China’s improved demand: Asian demand is anticipated to improve, supported by new supply volumes, higher gas demand, and lower LNG prices. Meanwhile, China’s imports are likely to revive, not due to lower pipeline supply or reduced domestic supply, but to the maxing out of key supply sources that capped China’s LNG demand in 2025. With domestic production already meeting targets for 2025-26 and pipeline supply via PoS 1 operating at full capacity, we expect China’s growing demand to be met through spot buying (which remained subdued in 2025), while new contractual supply is set to commence in 2026.

The fleet expansion will continue; new orders and demolitions to surge

About 100 vessels (including 85 LNGCs) are scheduled to be delivered in 2026. In 2025, 81 vessels were delivered, including 76 LNGCs, with a 25% slippage rate, as several deliveries were deferred due to weaker earnings and project delays. 

The current orderbook stands at 334 vessels (282 LNGCs, 41 LNGBVs, four FSRUs and seven FLNGs), with an orderbook-to-fleet ratio at 40%. We expect the orderbook to be stable in 2026, as recovery in new orders will balance the heavy scheduled deliveries during the year. 

We expect ordering to rebound in 2026 with a slew of project-linked vessels in the pipeline. The major themes likely to emerge in 2026 will be around ordering carriers, with a focus on high fuel efficiency and emission standards, as owners seek to ‘future-proof’ their vessels amid regulatory and trade uncertainty. 

A record 15 LNGCs were scrapped in 2025, with the youngest being 20 years old. The idle fleet is also likely to expand, with 20–25 steam LNGCs coming off charter in 2026, while the heavy delivery schedule of modern carriers will exert more pressure on older carriers. Accordingly, Drewry expects 18-20 LNGCs to be scrapped in 2026, marking another record year. However, these scrappings will still not be enough to balance the vessel surplus in the market.

Watchful of any great expectations, but picture likely to change from 2H26

We expect LNG shipping rates to strengthen in 2H26 compared to 1H26, as over 70 LNGCs will be added to the fleet, available to cater to the new supply (with over 60-65% of the new liquefaction capacity added in 2H26). 

Asian demand is likely to surge towards mid-2026, as the summer of 2026 is projected to be exceptionally hot. With prices easing and supply improving, Asian buyers will increase their purchases, which were mainly constrained by higher prices in 2025. Moreover, Europe is expected to end the 2025-26 winter with less than 30% storage, necessitating higher restocking; this could accelerate in 2H26 as European countries begin preparing for their next winter, entering the second half with about 50% storage (below the five-year average). Europe will strive to sail another winter without Russian gas, and this time it will also have to navigate (possible) new tensions with its most-relied-upon LNG partner – the US. While 1H26 will be driven by an intense summer, 2H26 will be fuelled by a winter restocking. 

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

Geopolitics will remain perilous, with various implications for LNG shipping 

Geopolitics will remain a key driver of LNG shipping dynamics in 2026, with global tensions unlikely to ease anytime soon. On the contrary, the year has already begun with renewed US action in Venezuela and the former’s ambition to take over Greenland. While any direct impact on the LNG trade seems unlikely, the ripple effect could derail the expected pace of LNG development.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade war has already exacerbated tensions between the two, and any military confrontation or economic conflict could trigger a rollback of tariffs, sanctions and USTR policy.

Despite easing tensions in the Red Sea, with no attacks being carried out by the Houthis in the last 100 days, LNGC transits via the Suez Canal remain limited. We expect the return to Suez to be gradual for these carriers, as shipowners opt for a ‘wait-and-see’ approach amid prolonged geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, a persistent vessel surplus in 2026 is likely to support longer voyages via COGH. Moreover, a resolution between Russia and Ukraine appears to be difficult, with Europe considering a full ban on Russian LNG by 2027.

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

In order to get more/detailed insights on the LNG shipping in 2026 and beyond, read our latest LNG Forecaster, released on 9th January. You can also register for our upcoming webinar on 29 January 2026, covering the 2026 outlook and key developments in LNG shipping & market.