Reefer container freight rates have been declining since their peak of 3Q22 but at a more measured pace than for dry freight. This is because reefer’s peak was less pronounced due to the greater prevalence of annual contracts, while the stronger resilience of the less overtonnaged North-South trade routes, on which the majority of reefer cargo moves, has also helped. Drewry's Global Reefer Container Freight Rate Index, a weighted average of pricing across the top 15 reefer intensive deepsea trades, declined 22% to $4,840 per 40ft in the year to 2Q23. And initial indications show that the fall will have accelerated to 31% by the third quarter. But despite such corrections, reefer container freight rates remain some 60% above pre-pandemic levels, while pricing for dry cargo has reached parity.

One of the factors driving the superior performance of reefer container freight rates has been the mode’s continued gains in market share. This trend has continued supported by the normalisation in container equipment availability and port congestion, which have driven greater reefer volumes into containers from ageing specialised reefer ships. However, the decline in the size of the specialised fleet has slowed of late, thanks to last year’s capacity constraints, and a wave of large-sized newbuilds scheduled for delivery over the next three years will mitigate some of the decline.

Looking ahead, reefer shipping is positioned to outperform the broader dry cargo trade with a projected average annual growth of 3.6% for containerised reefer trade over the years to 2027. As a result, the anticipated fall in reefer container freight rates will continue to be more measured than for dry freight, still leaving them above pre-pandemic levels next year.

Annual Review and Forecast of the Reefer Shipping Market

The Reefer Shipping Annual Review and Forecast report provides in-depth analysis and forecasts of the perishable reefer shipping market, covering key commodity flows, fleet capacity development for the two principle vessel modes, as well as detailed market analysis by individual trade lane including freight rate development. Topics covered include:

• Trade and commodities
• Reefer shipping capacity
• Reefer shipping market
• Trade route analysis

The Annual Review is the 3Q Edition of the Reefer Shipping Forecaster (Annual Subscription).

Reefer Shipping Forecaster

The Reefer Shipping Forecaster provides concise, quarterly updates on reefer shipping trade development, vessel capacity, container equipment availability, freight rates and trade route development. The quarterly Reefer Shipping Forecaster offers a unique, regular outlook on market dynamics.