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India’s iron ore imports surge amid strong steel production
India’s iron ore imports surged more than 80% YoY in 1H25, driven by strong domestic demand and lower ore prices. This surge comes alongside a significant decline in exports, which have fallen by over 45% during the same period. The trade shift is also reshaping shipping patterns, with a growing preference for larger vessels carrying ore from Australia and Brazil.
India’s iron ore imports jumped over 80% YoY in 1H25, a shift that has the potential to alter trade flows and shipping demand in the region. On the other hand, exports fell more than 45% during the same period, as more iron ore stayed within the country to feed domestic steelmakers. The trend supports the rally in India’s crude steel production which grew over 9% in 1H25, the fastest among major producers, pushing India further ahead of the EU and Japan as the second-largest producer globally.
Figure 1: Surging steel production to support iron ore imports
Source: Drewry Maritime Research, Dry Bulk Forecaster issue 3 (imports of 2025 annualised, based on 1H25);
Steel production forecast for 2025 taken from Drewry’s Dry Bulk Forecaster, issue 3
Easing iron ore prices have kept imports competitive, supporting higher imports for the country’s steel mills. As long as iron ore prices remain soft and demand steady, imports are unlikely to slow down dramatically.
Figure 2: Iron ore prices to support imports
Notes: Iron ore price: cfr China, 62% fe content (imports of 2025 annualised, based on 1H25); Iron ore price for 2025: average until 1H25).
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
The composition of India’s iron ore production has also played a key role in shaping this trade pattern. Since a significant portion of the output is in the form of fines, domestic steel mills that historically used blast furnaces had limited capacity to process fines, which must be pelletised or sintered before use. This forced the country to export a large quantity of fines, while lumps, which can be fed directly into furnaces, were largely consumed domestically. High-grade lump exports were further constrained by steep taxes, whereas lower-grade fines were generally exempt. With more mills now equipped to produce pellets and sinter, domestic consumption of fines is rising, reducing exports. At the same time, India has increased imports of lumps to meet the requirements of its rapidly expanding steel sector.
The surge in iron ore imports to India is also generating demand for larger parcel sizes and, hence, a gradual shift towards large vessels from the previously popular Handysizes and Supramaxes. With a huge share of imports already coming from Australia and Brazil, the balance has swung towards Capesize vessels in 2025, supporting their employment.
Conclusion
Strong steel output and competitive import pricing point to imports staying elevated, even if domestic mining picks up. The growing role of Capesize tonnage will not just shape India’s import profile, it will also influence how bulk carriers are deployed globally, underlining the country’s position in the long-haul iron ore trade.
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