Drewry’s latest forecast for multipurpose and heavylift (MPV/HL) shipping confirms that if the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is contained by 4Q20, the expected demand growth for breakbulk and project cargo will stay positive but remain very weak.
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
Initial analysis by Drewry suggests that the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak will lead to weaker than expected full-year cargo demand growth for multipurpose and heavlift (MPV/HL) vessels, as any anticipated recovery will not be sufficient to offset contractions of the first part of the year.
Increasing biodiesel consumption due to the rollout of B20 biodiesel programme in Malaysia and B30 programme in Indonesia coupled with low production of palm oil will tighten its supply. Top importers like India and China will counterbalance this gap by switching to soybean oil and sunflower oil. This trade shift will result in increased tonne-mile demand and firm vegoil freight index in 2020.
Drewry’s freight cost benchmarking and procurement support division, is pleased to announce the launch of a new range of fuel advisory and management services designed exclusively for shippers and forwarders.
As part of a series of initiatives aimed at bringing greater transparency to fuel costs resulting from the new IMO 2020 low-sulphur regulation, Drewry is pleased to announce the publication of its first low-sulphur reference bunker index tracker.