Appalling fate of non-coking coal trade
While imports to the EU will continue to decline, momentum in Asia’s imports will remain intact over the next five-eight years, thereby supporting dry bulk shipping demand. However, increasing consensus on limiting climate change is expected to decelerate coal imports to Asia post-2030, leading to a drop in non-coking coal trade and consequently dampening employment opportunities for dry bulk vessels.16 Oct 2020: China-Australia tiff to hit dry bulk demand
The Chinese government has prohibited the import of Australian coal, which will be detrimental for dry bulk vessels as Chinese importers will shift from Australia to Indonesia and Mongolia, resulting in a decline in average haulage length and a loss in shipping demand.06 Aug 2020: Coking coal’s rail ticket to hit Panamax demand post 2025
Increasing penetration of renewables in the energy mix has already created a bearish outlook for non-coking coal trade, but completion of the rail network between Mongolia and China in 2021 threatens to bring the coking coal trade between Australia and China to a screeching halt in the long term.
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